VAT, Exchange Rate, and Non-Oil Imports: The Moderating Role of GDP
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59431/ijer.v6i3.971Keywords:
Value Added Tax, Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, Non-Oil and Gas Imports, Moderated Regression AnalysisAbstract
Indonesia’s non-oil and gas imports are influenced by fiscal and macroeconomic conditions, including Value Added Tax (VAT) policy and exchange rate movements. However, prior studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding their effects on import activity. This study examines the effects of the VAT rate and the Rupiah exchange rate on Indonesia’s non-oil and gas import value, as well as the moderating role of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is included as a moderating variable because changes in domestic economic activity may alter import demand and may strengthen or weaken the effects of VAT and exchange rate movements. This study employs a quantitative explanatory approach using quarterly secondary data from the first quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2025, consisting of 40 observations. Data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the Ministry of Finance. The analysis uses Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) with an AR(1) specification to address serial correlation. The results show that the VAT rate and the Rupiah exchange rate do not significantly affect Indonesia’s non-oil and gas import value. GDP also does not significantly moderate the effects of either variable on non-oil and gas imports. These findings differ from several prior studies that report significant effects of tax policy and exchange rates on imports. This study provides empirical evidence regarding the role of GDP as a moderating variable in Indonesia’s non-oil and gas import dynamics.
Downloads
References
Aulia, R. D., Putri, I. R., & Arianthony, S. (2025). Konsep dasar ekonomi internasional dan teori perdagangan internasional. 2(May), 116–122. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15387779
Bangun, M. I. H., & Afifuddin, S. (2024). Analysis of effect of real gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rates, inflation, and foreign exchange reserves on the oil and gas and the non-oil and gas imports in Indonesia. 11(February), 467–489. https://doi.org/10.52403/ijrr.20240250
Benzarti, Y., & Tazhitdinova, A. (2021). Do value-added taxes affect international trade flows? Evidence from 30 years of tax reforms. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 13(4), 469–489. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190492
Budiman, I. F., Monintja, R. J., & Asia, E. (2026). Predicting Indonesia’s manufacturing exports in the RCEP region: A machine learning approach to the gravity model of trade. 6(2), 311–327. https://doi.org/10.59431/ijer.v6i2.763
Chakraborty, M., & Maitra, B. (2022). Import demand function in India under the liberalised trade regime. The Indian Economic Journal, 70(1), 53–70. https://doi.org/10.1177/00194662211063563
El-Shagi, M., Sawyer, W. C., & Tochkov, K. (2022). The income elasticity of import demand: A meta-survey. Pacific Economic Review, 27(1), 18–41. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12357
Grübler, J., Ghodsi, M., & Stehrer, R. (2022). Import demand elasticities revisited. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 31(1), 46–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2021.1951820
Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. (2024). Perlakuan pajak pertambahan nilai atas impor barang kena pajak, penyerahan barang kena pajak, penyerahan jasa kena pajak, pemanfaatan barang kena pajak tidak berwujud dari luar daerah pabean di dalam daerah pabean, dan pemanfaatan jasa kena pajak dari luar daerah pabean di dalam daerah pabean.
Kharisma, N., & Furqon, I. K. (2021). Analisis dampak kenaikan tarif pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN). 2, 295–303. https://doi.org/10.61722/jrme.v1i5.3045
Kirana, R. (2026). The impact of inflation and government expenditure on economic growth moderated by gross domestic product. 6(2), 423–430. https://doi.org/10.59431/ijer.v6i2.779
Kuswantoro, & Rosianawati, G. (2016). Analisis pengaruh PDB riil, cadangan devisa dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap impor nonmigas di Indonesia. 6(2), 166–190. https://doi.org/10.35448/jequ.v6i2.4342
Muryani, S., & Hutajulu, D. M. (2023). Analisis pengaruh inflasi, produk domestik bruto dan kurs bagi impor Indonesia. 28(39), 210–224. https://doi.org/10.35760/eb.2023.v28i2.7290
Subiyanto, B., Pradani, T., Digdowiseiso, K., & Virgita, N. (2022). The effects of inflation, exchange rate, and import on value added tax and sales tax of luxury goods. 338–345. https://doi.org/10.33258/birci.v5i1.3611
Sugiyono. (2017). Metode penelitian.
Swara, I. W. Y., Ekonomi, F., & Unud, U. U. (2012). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor non-migas Indonesia kurun waktu tahun 1985–2012. 1018–1047. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/eep/article/view/14855
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Putri Amelia Vega, Munawaroh Munawaroh, M. Djadjuli
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
